Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
2,2 (pair of 2s) vs dealer 4: the verdict
The math is in: split. Two hands of 2 beat one 4 against a dealer 4 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 46.9% | 3.8% | 49.4% | +0.043 |
| Hit | 45.9% | 3.3% | 50.8% | −0.049 |
| Stand | 39.4% | 0.0% | 60.6% | −0.211 |
| Double | 39.4% | 0.0% | 60.6% | −0.422 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 4. Split, each new hand starting from 2 wins 46.9% — enough that two of them (EV +0.043 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.049.
For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $231 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.092 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.465 per dollar, or roughly $1163 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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2,2 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 4: