Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
6,6 (pair of 6s) vs dealer 4: the verdict
The math is in: split. Two hands of 6 beat one 12 against a dealer 4 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 44.8% | 2.8% | 52.4% | −0.050 |
| Stand | 39.4% | 0.0% | 60.6% | −0.211 |
| Hit | 37.0% | 4.7% | 58.3% | −0.214 |
| Double | 37.0% | 4.7% | 58.3% | −0.427 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 4. Split, each new hand starting from 6 wins 44.8% — enough that two of them (EV −0.050 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.211.
For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of split costs about $404 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.162 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.378 per dollar, or roughly $944 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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6,6 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 4: