Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 16 (A,5) vs dealer 3: the verdict
The math is in: hit. Against a dealer 3, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 16 (a,5).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 48.1% | 4.8% | 47.2% | +0.009 |
| Double | 47.4% | 4.8% | 47.8% | −0.007 |
| Stand | 37.4% | 0.0% | 62.6% | −0.252 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 3 busts just 37.4% of the time — the other 62.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 48.1% wins versus 37.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 3 finishes on 17–20 about 51.1% of the time, on 21 11.5%, and busts 37.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $41 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.016 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.261 per dollar, or roughly $653 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 16 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 3: