Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 18 (A,7) vs dealer 5: the verdict
The verdict is double. Against a dealer 5, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double | 53.7% | 7.3% | 39.0% | +0.295 |
| Stand | 53.9% | 12.2% | 33.9% | +0.200 |
| Hit | 53.7% | 7.3% | 39.0% | +0.148 |
Why double is correct
Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (53.7% vs 53.7%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 5 (bust chance 41.6%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.295 doubled beats +0.148 hit.
For context, a dealer 5 finishes on 17–20 about 47.5% of the time, on 21 10.8%, and busts 41.6%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of double costs about $239 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.096 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is hit: −0.148 per dollar, or roughly $369 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 18 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 5: