Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 17 vs dealer 10: the verdict
Basic strategy says stand. Against a dealer 10, hard 17 does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 23.0% | 12.1% | 65.0% | −0.420 |
| Hit | 18.3% | 5.0% | 76.7% | −0.584 |
| Double | 18.3% | 5.0% | 76.7% | −1.169 |
Why stand is correct
A dealer showing 10 busts 23.0% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 23.0% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer 10 finishes on 17–20 about 73.3% of the time, on 21 3.7%, and busts 23.0%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of stand costs about $412 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.165 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.749 per dollar, or roughly $1873 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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17 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 10: