Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 15 vs dealer 10: the verdict
The math is in: hit. Against a dealer 10, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 15.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 21.6% | 6.4% | 72.0% | −0.504 |
| Stand | 23.0% | 0.0% | 77.0% | −0.540 |
| Double | 21.8% | 5.9% | 72.3% | −1.009 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 10 busts just 23.0% of the time — the other 77.0% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 21.6% wins versus 23.0% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 10 finishes on 17–20 about 73.3% of the time, on 21 3.7%, and busts 23.0%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of hit costs about $90 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.036 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.505 per dollar, or roughly $1261 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
Yes — this is one of the cells where table rules genuinely matter:
| Rules | Verdict |
|---|---|
| Evolution Live — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Hit |
| Vegas Strip — 4 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Hit |
| Atlantic City — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · late surrender | Surrender |
| Vegas H17 — 6 decks · dealer hits soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Hit |
| European (ENHC) — 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · no hole card (ENHC) · double after split | Hit |
Check the chart for your exact rules before trusting any single-table answer.
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15 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 10: