Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 9 vs dealer 4: the verdict
The verdict is double. Against a dealer 4, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double | 51.2% | 6.6% | 42.1% | +0.182 |
| Hit | 52.9% | 7.2% | 40.0% | +0.129 |
| Stand | 39.4% | 0.0% | 60.6% | −0.211 |
Why double is correct
Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (51.2% vs 52.9%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 4 (bust chance 39.4%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.182 doubled beats +0.129 hit.
For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of double costs about $132 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.053 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.393 per dollar, or roughly $983 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — double holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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9 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 4: