Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 9 vs dealer Ace: the verdict
The math is in: hit. Against a dealer Ace, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 9.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 39.8% | 13.9% | 46.3% | −0.066 |
| Double | 34.1% | 10.2% | 55.7% | −0.433 |
| Stand | 16.7% | 0.0% | 83.3% | −0.667 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing Ace busts just 16.7% of the time — the other 83.3% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 39.8% wins versus 16.7% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $918 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.367 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.601 per dollar, or roughly $1503 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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9 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer Ace: