Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 19 (A,8) vs dealer 2: the verdict
Basic strategy says stand. Against a dealer 2, soft 19 (a,8) does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 62.8% | 13.0% | 24.2% | +0.386 |
| Double | 52.1% | 8.0% | 40.0% | +0.242 |
| Hit | 52.0% | 8.3% | 39.6% | +0.124 |
Why stand is correct
A dealer showing 2 busts 35.4% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 62.8% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer 2 finishes on 17–20 about 52.8% of the time, on 21 11.8%, and busts 35.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of stand costs about $361 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.144 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is hit: −0.262 per dollar, or roughly $656 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 19 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 2: