Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 20 (A,9) vs dealer 7: the verdict
Basic strategy says stand. Against a dealer 7, soft 20 (a,9) does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 84.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | +0.773 |
| Double | 56.1% | 7.5% | 36.4% | +0.392 |
| Hit | 57.8% | 10.0% | 32.1% | +0.257 |
Why stand is correct
A dealer showing 7 busts 26.2% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 84.7% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer 7 finishes on 17–20 about 66.4% of the time, on 21 7.4%, and busts 26.2%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of stand costs about $952 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.381 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is hit: −0.516 per dollar, or roughly $1291 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 20 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 7: