Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 20 (A,9) vs dealer 5: the verdict
The math is in: stand. Against a dealer 5, soft 20 (a,9) does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 77.9% | 11.3% | 10.8% | +0.670 |
| Double | 59.3% | 7.1% | 33.6% | +0.513 |
| Hit | 59.3% | 7.1% | 33.6% | +0.256 |
Why stand is correct
A dealer showing 5 busts 41.6% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 77.9% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer 5 finishes on 17–20 about 47.5% of the time, on 21 10.8%, and busts 41.6%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of stand costs about $395 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.158 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is hit: −0.414 per dollar, or roughly $1035 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 20 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 5: