Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 15 vs dealer Ace: the verdict
The verdict is hit. Against a dealer Ace, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 15.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 22.5% | 6.9% | 70.5% | −0.480 |
| Stand | 16.7% | 0.0% | 83.3% | −0.667 |
| Double | 22.2% | 6.4% | 71.4% | −0.983 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing Ace busts just 16.7% of the time — the other 83.3% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 22.5% wins versus 16.7% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of hit costs about $467 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.187 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.503 per dollar, or roughly $1258 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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15 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer Ace: