Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 15 vs dealer 9: the verdict
Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer 9, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 15.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 23.2% | 6.4% | 70.4% | −0.472 |
| Stand | 22.8% | 0.0% | 77.2% | −0.543 |
| Double | 23.3% | 5.9% | 70.7% | −0.948 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 9 busts just 22.8% of the time — the other 77.2% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 23.2% wins versus 22.8% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 9 finishes on 17–20 about 71.1% of the time, on 21 6.1%, and busts 22.8%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of hit costs about $179 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.072 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.477 per dollar, or roughly $1192 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
🎁 Blackjack Welcome Bonus — 500% + 70 FS18+ · New players · First deposit · T&C apply · Play responsibly Get this verdict at the table in one tap.Free Telegram mini-app: instant verdicts, drill trainer and rule-aware charts — no install, opens right in chat.Related spots
15 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 9: