Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
3,3 (pair of 3s) vs dealer 6: the verdict
The math is in: split. Two hands of 3 beat one 6 against a dealer 6 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 49.2% | 3.3% | 47.4% | +0.169 |
| Hit | 48.0% | 2.7% | 49.3% | −0.013 |
| Stand | 42.3% | 0.0% | 57.7% | −0.154 |
| Double | 42.3% | 1.3% | 56.4% | −0.282 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 6. Split, each new hand starting from 3 wins 49.2% — enough that two of them (EV +0.169 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.013.
For context, a dealer 6 finishes on 17–20 about 48.0% of the time, on 21 9.7%, and busts 42.3%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $456 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.182 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.451 per dollar, or roughly $1128 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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3,3 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 6: