Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
3,3 (pair of 3s) vs dealer 5: the verdict
Basic strategy says split. Two hands of 3 beat one 6 against a dealer 5 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 48.0% | 3.4% | 48.6% | +0.102 |
| Hit | 46.9% | 2.7% | 50.4% | −0.035 |
| Stand | 41.6% | 0.0% | 58.4% | −0.167 |
| Double | 41.6% | 0.9% | 57.4% | −0.316 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 5. Split, each new hand starting from 3 wins 48.0% — enough that two of them (EV +0.102 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.035.
For context, a dealer 5 finishes on 17–20 about 47.5% of the time, on 21 10.8%, and busts 41.6%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $343 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.137 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.418 per dollar, or roughly $1045 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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3,3 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 5: