Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
4,4 (pair of 4s) vs dealer 6: the verdict
Basic strategy says split. Two hands of 4 beat one 8 against a dealer 6 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 48.7% | 3.1% | 48.1% | +0.146 |
| Hit | 52.6% | 6.4% | 41.1% | +0.115 |
| Double | 49.5% | 5.4% | 45.1% | +0.087 |
| Stand | 42.3% | 0.0% | 57.7% | −0.154 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 6. Split, each new hand starting from 4 wins 48.7% — enough that two of them (EV +0.146 across both) beat the best single-hand line at +0.115.
For context, a dealer 6 finishes on 17–20 about 48.0% of the time, on 21 9.7%, and busts 42.3%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $77 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.031 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.300 per dollar, or roughly $749 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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4,4 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 6: