Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
4,4 (pair of 4s) vs dealer 9: the verdict
Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer 9, drawing another card carries the best expectation for 4,4 (pair of 4s).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 33.7% | 11.6% | 54.7% | −0.210 |
| Split* | 33.1% | 9.0% | 57.9% | −0.466 |
| Stand | 22.8% | 0.0% | 77.2% | −0.543 |
| Double | 28.4% | 7.3% | 64.3% | −0.719 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 9 busts just 22.8% of the time — the other 77.2% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 33.7% wins versus 22.8% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 9 finishes on 17–20 about 71.1% of the time, on 21 6.1%, and busts 22.8%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing split instead of hit costs about $640 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.256 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.508 per dollar, or roughly $1271 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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4,4 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 9: