Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
4,4 (pair of 4s) vs dealer Ace: the verdict
Basic strategy says hit. Against a dealer Ace, drawing another card carries the best expectation for 4,4 (pair of 4s).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 33.4% | 13.5% | 53.1% | −0.197 |
| Split* | 32.3% | 10.1% | 57.6% | −0.506 |
| Stand | 16.7% | 0.0% | 83.3% | −0.667 |
| Double | 25.4% | 8.7% | 65.9% | −0.811 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing Ace busts just 16.7% of the time — the other 83.3% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 33.4% wins versus 16.7% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing split instead of hit costs about $773 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.309 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −0.614 per dollar, or roughly $1534 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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4,4 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer Ace: