Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
9,9 (pair of 9s) vs dealer 4: the verdict
Basic strategy says split. Two hands of 9 beat one 18 against a dealer 4 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 52.9% | 7.2% | 40.0% | +0.302 |
| Stand | 52.5% | 12.6% | 34.9% | +0.176 |
| Hit | 17.8% | 2.7% | 79.5% | −0.617 |
| Double | 17.8% | 2.7% | 79.5% | −1.235 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 4. Split, each new hand starting from 9 wins 52.9% — enough that two of them (EV +0.302 across both) beat the best single-hand line at +0.176.
For context, a dealer 4 finishes on 17–20 about 49.4% of the time, on 21 11.1%, and busts 39.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing stand instead of split costs about $314 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.126 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −1.536 per dollar, or roughly $3841 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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9,9 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 4: