Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
9,9 (pair of 9s) vs dealer Ace: the verdict
The verdict is stand. Against a dealer Ace, 9,9 (pair of 9s) does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 35.5% | 18.9% | 45.6% | −0.100 |
| Split* | 39.8% | 13.9% | 46.3% | −0.131 |
| Hit | 16.9% | 3.5% | 79.6% | −0.627 |
| Double | 16.9% | 3.5% | 79.6% | −1.253 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why stand is correct
A dealer showing Ace busts 16.7% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 35.5% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing split instead of stand costs about $78 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.031 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −1.153 per dollar, or roughly $2882 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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9,9 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer Ace: