Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
A,A (pair of aces) vs dealer 6: the verdict
The verdict is split. Two hands of A beat one 12 against a dealer 6 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 63.3% | 6.7% | 30.0% | +0.667 |
| Hit | 56.7% | 5.1% | 38.1% | +0.186 |
| Double | 52.3% | 4.4% | 43.3% | +0.180 |
| Stand | 42.3% | 0.0% | 57.7% | −0.154 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 6. Split, each new hand starting from A wins 63.3% — enough that two of them (EV +0.667 across both) beat the best single-hand line at +0.186.
For context, a dealer 6 finishes on 17–20 about 48.0% of the time, on 21 9.7%, and busts 42.3%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $1204 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.481 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.821 per dollar, or roughly $2053 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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A,A against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 6: