Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
A,A (pair of aces) vs dealer 9: the verdict
The verdict is split. Two hands of A beat one 12 against a dealer 9 — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 52.0% | 7.3% | 40.6% | +0.228 |
| Hit | 44.2% | 11.5% | 44.2% | +0.000 |
| Double | 35.6% | 5.9% | 58.4% | −0.456 |
| Stand | 22.8% | 0.0% | 77.2% | −0.543 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a 9. Split, each new hand starting from A wins 52.0% — enough that two of them (EV +0.228 across both) beat the best single-hand line at +0.000.
For context, a dealer 9 finishes on 17–20 about 71.1% of the time, on 21 6.1%, and busts 22.8%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $569 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.228 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.771 per dollar, or roughly $1927 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — split holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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A,A against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 9: