Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
A,A (pair of aces) vs dealer Ace: the verdict
The verdict is split. Two hands of A beat one 12 against a dealer Ace — split them.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split* | 48.6% | 8.2% | 43.2% | +0.109 |
| Hit | 43.2% | 11.5% | 45.3% | −0.020 |
| Double | 31.2% | 6.4% | 62.4% | −0.624 |
| Stand | 16.7% | 0.0% | 83.3% | −0.667 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why split is correct
Played as a single total, this hand is weak against a Ace. Split, each new hand starting from A wins 48.6% — enough that two of them (EV +0.109 across both) beat the best single-hand line at −0.020.
For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of split costs about $324 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.130 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.776 per dollar, or roughly $1940 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
Yes — this is one of the cells where table rules genuinely matter:
| Rules | Verdict |
|---|---|
| Evolution Live — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Split |
| Vegas Strip — 4 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Split |
| Atlantic City — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · late surrender | Split |
| Vegas H17 — 6 decks · dealer hits soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Split |
| European (ENHC) — 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · no hole card (ENHC) · double after split | Hit |
Check the chart for your exact rules before trusting any single-table answer.
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A,A against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer Ace: