Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 15 (A,4) vs dealer 8: the verdict
The verdict is hit. Against a dealer 8, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 15 (a,4).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 43.6% | 10.0% | 46.3% | −0.027 |
| Double | 39.2% | 5.8% | 55.0% | −0.314 |
| Stand | 24.5% | 0.0% | 75.5% | −0.511 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 8 busts just 24.5% of the time — the other 75.5% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 43.6% wins versus 24.5% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 8 finishes on 17–20 about 68.6% of the time, on 21 6.9%, and busts 24.5%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $718 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.287 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.483 per dollar, or roughly $1209 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 15 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 8: