Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 15 (A,4) vs dealer 2: the verdict
The verdict is hit. Against a dealer 2, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 15 (a,4).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 47.3% | 5.3% | 47.3% | −0.000 |
| Double | 45.7% | 5.0% | 49.3% | −0.072 |
| Stand | 35.4% | 0.0% | 64.6% | −0.293 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 2 busts just 35.4% of the time — the other 64.6% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 47.3% wins versus 35.4% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 2 finishes on 17–20 about 52.8% of the time, on 21 11.8%, and busts 35.4%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $179 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.071 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.293 per dollar, or roughly $732 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 15 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 2: