Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Soft 15 (A,4) vs dealer 10: the verdict
The verdict is hit. Against a dealer 10, drawing another card carries the best expectation for soft 15 (a,4).
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit | 36.2% | 10.2% | 53.6% | −0.174 |
| Double | 34.2% | 5.9% | 59.9% | −0.514 |
| Stand | 23.0% | 0.0% | 77.0% | −0.540 |
Why hit is correct
Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing 10 busts just 23.0% of the time — the other 77.0% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 36.2% wins versus 23.0% for standing, and a better expected value overall.
For context, a dealer 10 finishes on 17–20 about 73.3% of the time, on 21 3.7%, and busts 23.0%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing double instead of hit costs about $851 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.340 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.367 per dollar, or roughly $917 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — hit holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
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soft 15 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 10: