Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
Hard 11 vs dealer 10: the verdict
The math is in: double. Against a dealer 10, this hand is strong enough to put double the money on the table.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double | 51.1% | 6.8% | 42.1% | +0.180 |
| Hit | 51.3% | 9.4% | 39.3% | +0.119 |
| Stand | 23.0% | 0.0% | 77.0% | −0.540 |
Why double is correct
Doubling wins almost exactly as often as hitting (51.1% vs 51.3%) — the difference is you have twice the money riding on a favorable spot. Against a dealer 10 (bust chance 23.0%), that extra bet is the whole point: EV +0.180 doubled beats +0.119 hit.
For context, a dealer 10 finishes on 17–20 about 73.3% of the time, on 21 3.7%, and busts 23.0%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing hit instead of double costs about $151 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.060 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.720 per dollar, or roughly $1800 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
Yes — this is one of the cells where table rules genuinely matter:
| Rules | Verdict |
|---|---|
| Evolution Live — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Double |
| Vegas Strip — 4 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Double |
| Atlantic City — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · late surrender | Double |
| Vegas H17 — 6 decks · dealer hits soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split | Double |
| European (ENHC) — 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · no hole card (ENHC) · double after split | Hit |
Check the chart for your exact rules before trusting any single-table answer.
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11 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer 10: