Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology

Hard 11 vs dealer Ace: the verdict

HIT

The verdict is hit. Against a dealer Ace, drawing another card carries the best expectation for hard 11.

The numbers

Action	Win	Push	Lose	EV per $1
Hit	51.6%	11.1%	37.3%	+0.143
Double	48.6%	8.2%	43.2%	+0.109
Stand	16.7%	0.0%	83.3%	−0.667

Why hit is correct

Standing here wins only when the dealer busts, and a dealer showing Ace busts just 16.7% of the time — the other 83.3% they make a hand and your total loses on its own. Hitting risks going over, but the math nets out ahead: 51.6% wins versus 16.7% for standing, and a better expected value overall.

For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.

What the mistake costs

Choosing double instead of hit costs about $85 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.034 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is stand: −0.810 per dollar, or roughly $2025 per 100 hands at the same stakes.

Does the rule set change it?

Yes — this is one of the cells where table rules genuinely matter:

Rules	Verdict
Evolution Live — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split	Hit
Vegas Strip — 4 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split	Hit
Atlantic City — 8 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split · late surrender	Hit
Vegas H17 — 6 decks · dealer hits soft 17 · hole card with peek · double after split	Double
European (ENHC) — 6 decks · dealer stands on soft 17 · no hole card (ENHC) · double after split	Hit

Check the chart for your exact rules before trusting any single-table answer.

Card counter’s note. Counters double at true count +1 or higher. See how counting and true counts work.

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Related spots

11 against other dealer cards:

vs 2 vs 3 vs 4 vs 5 vs 6 vs 7 vs 8 vs 9 vs 10

Other key hands vs a dealer Ace:

16 vs Ace 12 vs Ace 15 vs Ace soft 18 vs Ace 8,8 vs Ace

Frequently asked

Do you hit on 11 against a dealer Ace?

Yes — hit is the basic-strategy play for Hard 11 vs Ace (EV +0.143 per $1). Double is the second-best option at +0.109.

What are the odds of winning with 11 vs Ace?

Playing it correctly (hit), you win 51.6% of hands, push 11.1% and lose 37.3%.

Is it the same if the dealer hits soft 17?

No — under H17 rules the correct play becomes double. Rule sets matter; see the variations table above.