Updated 2026-07-22 · 8 decks · S17 · DAS · methodology
10,10 (pair of 10s) vs dealer Ace: the verdict
The math is in: stand. Against a dealer Ace, 10,10 (pair of 10s) does best by letting the dealer take the risk of busting.
The numbers
| Action | Win | Push | Lose | EV per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stand | 73.3% | 18.9% | 7.8% | +0.655 |
| Split* | 47.2% | 13.6% | 39.1% | +0.163 |
| Hit | 7.1% | 0.6% | 92.3% | −0.852 |
| Double | 7.1% | 0.6% | 92.3% | −1.704 |
* win/push/lose shown per split hand; EV covers both hands per one initial bet.
Why stand is correct
A dealer showing Ace busts 16.7% of the time, and that bust chance is doing the work here: standing wins 73.3% of hands without ever risking your own bust. Drawing a card would improve the total sometimes, but the bust risk and the hands you’d ruin cost more than they gain.
For context, a dealer Ace finishes on 17–20 about 75.6% of the time, on 21 7.8%, and busts 16.7%. Those dealer outcomes are the same no matter what you hold — the whole game is choosing the action whose distribution fits them best.
What the mistake costs
Choosing split instead of stand costs about $1231 per 100 such hands at $25 a hand (−0.493 EV per dollar). The genuinely expensive error here is double: −2.360 per dollar, or roughly $5899 per 100 hands at the same stakes.
Does the rule set change it?
No — stand holds across every common configuration: Vegas Strip, Atlantic City with late surrender, H17 games and European no-hole-card tables all agree here.
🎁 Blackjack Welcome Bonus — 500% + 70 FS18+ · New players · First deposit · T&C apply · Play responsibly Get this verdict at the table in one tap.Free Telegram mini-app: instant verdicts, drill trainer and rule-aware charts — no install, opens right in chat.Related spots
10,10 against other dealer cards:
Other key hands vs a dealer Ace: